And the Oscar goes to…
Mar 5, 2023
This year’s Oscars are starting to hit a different tone with this year’s Host Jimmy Kimmel. We are officially one week away. Here are my predictions on who will be taking the gold.
TECHNICAL CATEGORIES
FILM EDITING NOMINEES
“Banshees of Inisherin” – Edited by Mikkel E.G Nielsen
“Elvis” – Edited by Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
“Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – Edited by Paul Rogers
“TÁR” – Edited by Monika Willi
“Top Gun: Maverick” – Edited by Eddie Hamilton
Prediction win Film Editing: “Everything, Everywhere All At Once”
“Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” splices hundreds of universes, including hundreds of costume changes, props, and hair and makeup choices into 60 seconds of phenomenal editing. Not to mention that editor Paul Rogers edited the entire film on his iMac using Adobe Premiere Pro, with little film editing experience. “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” has taken home Best Film Editing at the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards, making them a solid contender to take home the Academy Award.
SOUND EDITING
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
“Avatar: The Way of Water” – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
“The Batman” – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
“Elvis” – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
“Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Prediction to Win: “Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
When watching “Top Gun: Maverick”, I have a hard time deciphering if it’s the best movie I’ve ever seen or just another mediocre movie. But, the Academy can’t deny it’s cultural success, almost single-handedly bringing people back into theaters. I don’t think “Top Gun: Maverick” will win big at the Oscars, but I don’t think that the film will walk away empty-handed. I believe they’ll get the Sound Editing award, and perhaps another technical award during the pre-show.
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – by Heike Merker & Linda Eisenhamerová
“The Batman” – by Naomi Donne, Mike Marino & Mike Fontaine
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – by Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
“Elvis” – by Mark Coulier, Jason Baird & Aldo Signoretti
“The Whale” – by Adrien Morot, Judy Chin & Annemarie Bradley
Prediction to Win: “Elvis” – by Mark Coulier, Jason Baird &Aldo Signoretti
“Elvis”’s flashy costuming, bright makeup and big hair made “Elvis” the critically acclaimed movie it is today. Austin Butler became a walking wax figurine of Elvis, and that is wholly in thanks to the Makeup and Hairstyling team. Already with a BAFTA and Critics Choice Award win for Makeup and Hairstyling, “Elvis” will most likely win Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars.
COSTUMING
“Babylon” – Costuming by Mary Zophres
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Costuming by Ruth Carter
“Elvis” – Costuming by Catherine Martin
“Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – Costuming by Shirley Kurata
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” – Costuming by Jenny Beavan
Prediction to Win: “Elvis” – Costuming by Catherine Martin.
I don’t doubt that “Elvis” will also take home the costuming award almogside hari and makeup. It’s hard to deny the film’s visual successes, and the hair, makeup and costuming departments all added an extra layer to that success. While I want to see “Babylon” take home another award, I doubt it will be able to in the shadow of “Elvis”.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Cinematography by James Friend
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” – Cinematography by Darius Khondji
“Elvis” – Cinematography by Mandy Walker
“Empire of Light” – Cinematography by Roger Deakins
“TÁR” – Cinematography by Florian Hoffmeister
Prediction to Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Cinematography by James Friend
While I think several other movies could’ve dominated in this category (and it’s a shame they didn’t) “All Quiet on the Western Front” is bound to take home this award. With it’s wins at the BAFTAs, I don’t doubt that it will take home the award. The precursor awards with this category have been unpredictable, with “Top Gun: Maverick” winning at the Critics Choice Awards and “TÁR” winning at the Film Independent Spirirt Awards. Despite these anomalies, I believe that “All Quiet on the Western Front” will take home the award.
FEATURES
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Guillermo Del Toro’s “Pinocchio” – Directed by Guillermo Del Toro
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” – Directed by Dean Fleischer Camp
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” – Directed by Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
“The Sea Beast” – Directed by Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
“Turning Red” – Directed by Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
Prediction to Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, directed by Guillermo del Toro.
Del Toro’s “Pinocchio” has been well loved and widely received by the public after its Netflix debut. Gathering wins from the BATFAs, the Critics Choice awards, the Producers Guild of America Awards, and the Hollywood Critics Association Awards, del Toro has almost completely secured this win. Of course, it’s hard to count out Disney’s “Turning Red”, but the Academy looks fondly on del Toro and his work. “Pinocchio” is almost guaranteed to win.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Applause” – from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” – from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” – from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” – from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyrics by Chandrabose
“This is a Life” – from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Prediction to Win: “Naatu Naatu” – from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyrics by Chandrabose
Against everyone’s misconceptions, “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” has swept every single Best Original Song precursor award. Even after knocking out Taylor Swift’s original song for “Where the Crawdads Sing” and Selena Gomez’s original track for her documentary “My Mind and Me,” “Naatu Naatu” still has huge names to compete against. With the likes of Rihanna, Mitski and Lady Gaga to compete against, it seemed like a very tough competition. But, Naatu Naatu has blown cinephiles away at the awards ceremony. Taking home a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award, “Naatu Naatu” is on a (well deserved) runaway train to take home an Oscar.
ORIGINAL SCORE
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – by Volker Bertlemann
“Babylon” – by Justin Hurwitz
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Carter Burwell
“Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – by Son Lux
“The Fabelmans” – by John Williams
Prediction to win Best Original Score: “Babylon”, score by Justin Hurwtiz
“Babylon” is the fourth movie in which Hurwitz has composed the score for director Damien Chazelle. The prior movies the two worked together on include “Whiplash,” “La La Land” and “First Man.” While Hurwitz was not nominated for the “Whiplash” score (an egregious snub), “La La Land” went on to win both Best Original Score and Best Original Song. Hurwitz was snubbed again for his work on “First Man,” but Hurwitz simply does not miss when it comes to composing a score. With a Golden Globe under the film’s belt for score, it’s highly likely we’ll see Hurwitz awarded again this year. His main competition will be composing legend John Williams, who’s nominated for his work on “The Fabelmans.” Out of William’s five academy award winning compositions, Spielberg has directed three. It would be a mistake to count the iconic Spielberg & Williams duo out from an Original Score race, but Hurwitz has the precursor awards to indicate his taking home the trophy.
INTERNATIONAL FILM FEATURE
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Germany
“Argentina, 1985” – Argentina
“Close” – Belgium
“EO” – Poland
“The Quiet Girl” – Ireland
Prediction to Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Germany
Shocking no one, “All Quiet on the Western Front” will almost certainly take home International Film Feature. The German film has exceeded expectations this awards season, nabbing multiple BAFTAs and multiple nominations in the awards circuit. International Film Feature will almost certainly go to “All Quiet on the Western Front.”
DIRECTING
BEST DIRECTOR
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Martin McDonagh
“Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” – Steven Spielberg
“TÁR” – Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness” – Ruben Östlund
Prediction to Win: “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
After sweeping almost every single best directing category and winning a Director’s Guild Award, it’s safe to say that Kwan and Scheinert are likely to take home Best Director this year. Their work on “Everything Everywhere All At Once” deserves to be awarded and the precursor awards they’ve accumulated point directly to a golden statue.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Written by Martin McDonagh
“Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” – Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
“TÁR” – Written by Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness” – Written by Ruben Östlund
Prediction to Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Written by Martin McDonagh
The Academy Awards have a long standing history of absolutely bombing when it comes to choosing the Best Screenplay winners. “The Banshees of Inisherin” deserves a win after dominating at the BAFTAs, and I’m sure the Academy will find a way to give them their flowers. They should win for Best Original Screenplay, but the Academy has fumbled this award in the past, and will continue to do so.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Screenplay – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” – Written by Rian Johnson
“Living” – Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
“Top Gun: Maverick” – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
“Women Talking” – Screenplay by Sarah Polley
Prediction to Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
“All Quiet on the Western Front” has been a darling during the awards ceremonies leading up to the Oscars. Scoring big as the BAFTAs, “All Quiet on the Western Front”’s Best Picutre betting odds went up after the BAFTAs, to illustrate just how successful they’ve been this year. I don’t doubt that the Academy will want to nod to them outside of Best International Film, which is where they fall here.
ACTING
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brendan Gleeson – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch – “The Fablemans”
Barry Keoghan – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Prediction to Win: Ke Huy Quan – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Ke Huy Quan’s performance in “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once” is a triumph. The return of a beloved child actor to the big screen has been universally loved. It feels like Ke Huy Quan can’t stop winning, taking home the Best Supporting Actor award from the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the Hollywood Critics Association Awards, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. I want to see Ke Huy Quan round out his amazing awards season run for a standing-ovation worthy performance by taking home the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau – “The Whale”
Kerry Condon – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Stephanie Hsu – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Prediction to Win: Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
It’s time for Angela Bassett to walk home with an Academy Award. After an electrifying performance in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”, the Oscar campaign for Angela Bassett has been relentlessly successful, and for good reason. Bassett’s “Have I not given everything?” monologue is an unforgettable piece of cinema. She’s won a Critics Choice Award, a Golden Globe, and a BAFTA, but Jamie Lee Curtis won over Bassett at the SAG awards, shaking Bassett’s chance. If the Academy were to award someone other than Bassett (which I don’t find likely), please let it be Stepahnie Hsu. Curtis’s performance in “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once” was great, but Hsu acted as the main antagonist and delivered an amazing performance. It’s hard to overstate how she killed this role. Up against the likes of Bassett, it won’t be Hsu taking home the award (though they’re both deserving).
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – “TÁR”
Ana de Armas – “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough – “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams – “The Fablemans”
Michelle Yeoh – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Prediction to Win: Michelle Yeoh – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
The Best Actress in a Leading Role is a very gray category this year. Every actress (minus Ana de Armas) delivered beautiful performances in amazing films this year. With both Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh taking home numerous precursor awards, it’s tough tell between the two for the Oscar. My bet is on Yeoh, who delivered a stunning performance in “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”. I hope the Oscars follow the Golden Globes, the SAGs and the Independent Film Spirirt Awards in giving Yeoh her flowers.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler – “Elvis”
Colin Farrell – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
Paul Mescal – “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy – “Living”
Prediction to Win: Austin Butler – “Elvis”/Brendan Fraser – “The Whale” – Toss Up
I wish, in good faith, that I could predict Paul Mescal to take home this award, but I just don’t see it being possible. While Mescal’s performance in “Aftersun” was stunning, Butler has taken home a Golden Globe and a BAFTA for his performance in “Elvis”, and Fraser has claimed a Critics Choice Award and a SAG, making the race between the two very even. It would be amazing to see Fraser take home the award, but I really didn’t enjoy “The Whale” and I wish that wasn’t the movie he was going on his redemption tour with.
PICTURE
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Malte Grunert, Producer
“Avatar: The Way of Water” – James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
“Elvis” – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
“Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
“The Fabelmans” – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
“TÁR” – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
“Top Gun: Maverick” – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
“Triangle of Sadness” – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
“Women Talking” – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
Prediction to Win: “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
“All Quiet on the Western Front” has been a darling during the awards ceremonies leading up to the Oscars. Scoring big as the BAFTAs, “All Quiet on the Western Front’s” Best Picutre betting odds went up after the BAFTAs, to illustrate just how successful they’ve been this year. I don’t doubt that the Academy will want to nod to them outside of Best International Film, which is where they fall here.
ACTING
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brendan Gleeson – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch – “The Fablemans”
Barry Keoghan – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Prediction to Win: Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Ke Huy Quan’s performance in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is a triumph. The return of a beloved child actor to the big screen has been universally loved. It feels like Ke Huy Quan can’t stop winning, taking home the Best Supporting Actor award from the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the Hollywood Critics Association Awards, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. I want to see Ke Huy Quan round out his amazing awards season run for a standing-ovation worthy performance by taking home the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau – “The Whale”
Kerry Condon – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Stephanie Hsu – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Prediction to Win: Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
It’s time for Angela Bassett to walk home with an Academy Award. After an electrifying performance in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”, the Oscar campaign for Angela Bassett has been relentlessly successful, and for good reason. Bassett’s “Have I not given everything?” monologue is an unforgettable piece of cinem . She’s won a Critics Choice Award, a Golden Globe, and a BAFTA, but Jamie Lee Curtis won over Bassett at the SAG awards, shaking Bassett’s chance. If the Academy were to award someone other than Bassett (which I don’t find likely), please let it be Stepahnie Hsu. Curtis’s performance in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was great, but Hsu acted as the main antagonist and delivered an amazing performance. It’s hard to overstate how she killed this role. Up against the likes of Bassett, it won’t be Hsu taking home the award (though they’re both deserving).
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – “TÁR”
Ana de Armas – “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough – “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams – “The Fablemans”
Michelle Yeoh – “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once”
Prediction to Win: Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
The Best Actress in a Leading Role is a very gray category this year. Every actress (minus Ana de Armas) delivered beautiful performances in amazing films this year. With both Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh taking home numerous precursor awards, it’s tough tell between the two for the Oscar. My bet is on Yeoh, who delivered a stunning performance in “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” I hope the Oscars follow the Golden Globes, the SAGs and the Independent Film Spirirt Awards in giving Yeoh her flowers.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler – “Elvis”
Colin Farrell – “Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
Paul Mescal – “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy – “Living”
Prediction to Win: Austin Butler – “Elvis”/Brendan Fraser – “The Whale” – Toss Up
I wish, in good faith, that I could predict Paul Mescal to take home this award, but I just don’t see it being possible. While Mescal’s performance in “Aftersun” was stunning, Butler has taken home a Golden Globe and a BAFTA for his performance in “Elvis,” and Fraser has claimed a Critics Choice Award and a SAG, making the race between the two very even. It would be amazing to see Fraser take home the award, but I really didn’t enjoy “The Whale” and I wish that wasn’t the movie he was going on his redemption tour with.
PICTURE
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Malte Grunert, Producer
“Avatar: The Way of Water” – James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
“Elvis” – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
“Everything Everywhere All At Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
“The Fabelmans” – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
“TÁR” – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
“Top Gun: Maverick” – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
“Triangle of Sadness” – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
“Women Talking” – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
Prediction to Win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers