The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx continue to clash in the WNBA Finals as both teams look to capture the title. The teams are tied 1-1 in the Finals series so far, each capturing a win in New York’s own Barcaly’s Center. The Liberty hit the road on Wednesday, Oct. 16 for their first game in Minnesota this series. The Liberty have yet to win in the Lynx’s Target Center this season.
The Lynx defeated the Connecticut Sun in five games for their semi-finals run, and the Liberty toppled the reigning WNBA champions, the Las Vegas Aces, in four games, avenging their 2023 Finals loss. Many sports journalists thought it impossible for the Lynx to capture a game one win. Sabreena Merchant of the New York Times’s Athletic thought the Lynx had “less than a 10% chance” of capturing game one, facing a 48 hour turnaround after defeating the Sun in five.
About 35 minutes into the game, most people would agree with Merchant, as the Lynx’s chances of winning game one seemed to be slim. The Liberty held a 15 point advantage against the Lynx with just 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter, until the Lynx flipped the game on its head. In just five minutes, the Lynx not only clawed their way back within just three points of the Liberty, but the Lynx’s Courtney Williams hit a game-defining four point play to push the Lynx to take the lead.
The Liberty forced the game into overtime, but the Lynx still came out on top with a shocking 95-93 win over the Liberty on their home court.
The Liberty shifted the tone of the Finals series after a defining win over the Lynx in game two, with a much-needed win of 80-66. The Liberty’s lead shrunk to just two points with under four minutes left in the fourth quarter. Unlike game one, the Liberty refused to fade away, with forward Breanna Stewart capturing seven steals, three occurring in the fourth quarter. Liberty forward Betnijah Laney-Hamilton played a large role offensively, collecting 20 points on 57% field goal shooting.
The question remains now: which team will capture the title?
As the Liberty play on the road for game three, I predict the Lynx will win, pulling them to lead the series 2-1. The fourth game will also be at the Target Center in Minnesota. While the Liberty are an incredibly strong and disciplined team, I don’t see them capturing the title on the road. I expect WNBA Defensive Player of the Year, Napheesa Collier, to show up and show out in games three and four. If Collier can have explosive games like she had against Connecticut, the Lynx are sitting in a very good position to win the 2024 championship. When Collier has 20+ point games, the Lynx are primed to seal the win.
On the other hand, the Liberty have to be nearly perfect to win. Even in their loss to Minnesota, the Liberty’s Jonquel Jones boasted a double double with 24 points and 10 rebounds, and Stewart had 18 points on 28% field goal scoring. For the Liberty to capture games on the road, Sabrina Ionescu needs to have games like she did against the Aces in the semi-finals. The Liberty absolutely dominated in the semi-finals, only giving up one game to the Aces.
The Lynx have been a completely different story. With defensive locks like Collier and Alanna Smith, and an offensive juggernaut in Williams, the Lynx have been a different beast entirely for the Liberty. With the next do-or-die games in the series being in Minnesota, where the Liberty haven’t won all season, I find it hard to argue that the Liberty could take the series in four games. On the other hand, with their home court advantage, the Lynx have almost perfectly positioned themselves to win the series in four.
If the Liberty do manage to pull out a win in Minnesota and take the series to a game five, I still believe that the Lynx can pull off a win in Barclays Center. After watching Kayla McBride and William’s performance when the Lynx found themselves under pressure time and time again, I think that the Lynx will win this series, whether it’s in four or five games.
